Resurgence of Domestic Manufacturing: Expectations and Predictions for 2026

Over the past decade, reshoring and domestic manufacturing have become buzzwords in economic policy and strategic planning across North America. For 2026, that narrative is evolving: Shaped by global supply chain pressures, shifting trade policy, technological change, and mixed economic forecasts.

At Reliable Metal Buildings, we closely follow these trends to help customers navigate shifting supply chains, evolving economic conditions, and long-term construction planning with confidence. Here’s what we see coming in 2026.

The U.S. manufacturing sector has faced significant challenges through 2024 and 2025, including contraction in output, tariff-induced cost pressures, and ongoing supply chain disruptions. Recent data shows U.S. manufacturing production was essentially flat in late 2025, with only modest year-over-year gains when excluding automotive outputs. In other words: It’s been hard to convert policy momentum into sustained on-the-ground growth.

For 2026, though, industry forecasts paint a more optimistic picture. According to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), manufacturing leaders expect revenue increases across the majority of sectors next year, with total manufacturing revenue projected to rise by around 4.4% and capital expenditures expected to increase as well. Employment also looks to be on the rise in the new year. 

This forecast suggests a shift from contraction toward stabilization and moderate expansion, especially in the second half of 2026. Firms across industries such as fabricated metal products, computer and electronic products, and chemical manufacturing report confidence that operating conditions will strengthen compared to recent years. 

Canada’s manufacturing sector has faced even sharper pressure. PMI indicators (which measure manufacturing activity) have trended below expansion thresholds, signaling contraction over consecutive months. Output has slowed, and firms are adjusting to reduced demand and rising trade costs.

Economic forecasts for Canada project slower overall growth, mainly due to reliance on exports and policy spillovers from U.S. trade dynamics. The Bank of Canada has downgraded growth expectations for 2025 and 2026, largely due to adverse policy and weaker global demand. 

Despite mixed economic indicators, several trends are shaping manufacturing strategy in North America.

The reshoring movement, all about bringing production back to North America, continues to see progress in the market. Recent reports show tens of thousands of manufacturing jobs announced in 2024, with high-tech sectors such as electronics, batteries, and advanced transport equipment leading growth. U.S.-based companies also outpaced foreign investment when it comes to creating domestic roles.

However, reshoring is not totally uniform across all industries, and recent analysis shows that intentions to reshore do not always translate into immediate operational shifts. Global trade patterns and supply-demand fundamentals can slow reshoring momentum, even as higher-ups express renewed interest.

Tariffs and trade tensions have been a double-edged sword. While tariffs are often intended to protect domestic producers, they also raise input costs and create uncertainty, especially for sectors that depend on imported intermediate goods. These dynamics have slowed investment decisions and complicated long-term planning for manufacturers in both the U.S. and Canada. 

As manufacturing evolves with automation, robotics, and Industry 4.0 technologies, the workforce is changing. Many of the new production opportunities emphasize high-skill roles like engineers, technicians, and digital specialists, rather than traditional production line jobs. 

This shift has major implications for workforce development in domestic manufacturing. Industry surveys confirm that talent shortages and skills gaps remain huge concerns for executives planning growth. 

Most forecasts suggest modest growth rather than a dramatic spike. ISM surveys show increased confidence among supply chain and purchasing leaders, with positive revenue and investment expectations for 2026 across most manufacturing sectors. 

However, caution is still the name of the game. Nearly half of manufacturing executives expect recessionary forces within the next couple of years, pointing to a more reserved approach. 

Capital investment, while not skyrocketing, appears poised to grow. Companies in high-value, technology-intensive sectors are more likely to expand infrastructure and production capacity, particularly where supply chain security and advanced manufacturing capabilities align with national policy priorities and Federal incentives.

Trade policy will continue to influence North American manufacturing trajectories. Both the U.S. and Canada are navigating tariffs, trade agreements, and geopolitical uncertainties that shape where companies locate production and how they allocate capital.

For industries like metal building manufacturing these trends for 2026 suggest a few things:

Investors and manufacturers with the ability to adapt to evolving demand, labor dynamics, and trade policy will be best positioned to benefit from the broader resurgence narrative in 2026.

The resurgence of domestic manufacturing in 2026 is expected to be measured, industry-specific, and shaped by external economic pressures. While broad-based contraction has given way to growing optimism among manufacturers, challenges remain, from tariff impacts to workforce limitations.

Still, with strategic investment, policy alignment, and a focus on medium- and high-tech production capabilities, North American manufacturing is poised for a period of cautious but meaningful growth.